Potential revenue stream

John Battelle has some thoughts on a potential revenue stream for Google that would probably violate their "Do no evil" policy. It involves doling out top search results on structured searches (finance, for example) for some sort of business arrangement (cash). This would also violate their long-standing policy of not tainting their search results with advertiser revenue. However, they may be tempted to do so for a few "special" searches.

As long as people trust Google, the business model can survive. However, once the moral authority of providing unbiased search results dissipates, the jig is up. And therein lies the problem. Google will constantly be torn between two forces: 1. the desire for short-term profits in the form of specific, measurable revenue streams and 2. the necessity to maintain the aura of objectivity which underlies the long-term viability of their business. I will let the reader decide which of these forces has historically prevailed.

Legal roundup

I've compiled a summary of recent lawsuits against Google.

Plaintiff	Country	Date	Status	Payout	Issue
GEICO	US	12/15/2004	Won	N/A	Ad Keywords
Le Meridien	France	12/16/2004	Lost	$2,592	Ad Keywords
Louis Vuitton	France	2/4/2005	Lost	$257,430	Ad Keywords
Luteciel and Viaticum	France	3/16/2005	Lost	$100,300	Ad Keywords
Agence France Presse	US	3/18/2005	Preempted	N/A	Content Syndication

Google 10K

The Google 10K is here. Looks like AdSense revenues have held constant at 48% of total revenues for 3 months ended Dec 31 2004 (vs. 48% for 3 months ended Sept 31 2004). Google comments:

Although the growth in advertising revenues from our Google Network members’ web sites was nearly as great as that from our web sites from the three months ended September 30, 2004 compared to the three months ended December 31, 2004, we expect this growth to be slower than the growth in revenues from our web sites for the foreseeable future.

Oh yeah? That's what they said last time in their Nov 2004 10Q, but the AdSense revenue share remains constant.

Although we entered into a significant new AdSense for search agreement in October 2004, the growth in advertising revenues from our Google Network members' web sites is expected to be less than the growth in revenues from our web sites for the foreseeable future.

Google can try spinning this all they want but the fact remains: nearly half their revenue comes from a Ponzi scheme that people are increasingly becoming aware of. It will eventually burst, as all bubbles do. The only question is when.

Random Google search of the day

If you've ever wondered how many results you'd get if you typed in the value of pi to N decimal places, then, well, here it is. (Example: at index 4, you'd type in "3.1415" in the Google search.)

index value google count
2 4 2540000
3 1 153000
4 5 41700
5 9 171000
6 2 17100
7 6 24700
8 5 22700
9 3 922
10 5 10200
11 8 1970
12 9 681
13 7 2160
14 9 13200
15 3 15100
16 2 563
17 3 1300
18 8 3660
19 4 880
20 6 19500
21 2 510
22 6 2480
23 4 882
24 3 518
25 3 3280
26 8 1260
27 3 458
28 2 1360
29 7 1470
30 9 5910
31 5 660
32 0 1490
33 2 749
34 8 717
35 8 4130
36 4 459
37 1 1330
38 9 898
39 7 1270
40 1 1110
41 6 1020
42 9 244
43 3 211
44 9 526
45 9 198
46 3 135
47 7 578
48 5 2030
49 1 409
50 0 2980
51 5 128
52 8 359
53 2 278
54 0 216
55 9 1430
56 7 1800
57 4 44
58 9 182
59 4 197
60 4 1140
61 5 592
62 9 625
63 2 9000
64 3 62
65 0 80
66 7 940
67 8 427
68 1 1050
69 6 60
70 4 157
71 0 459
72 6 45
73 2 342
74 8 469
75 6 617
76 2 1610
77 0 585
78 8 60
79 9 13
80 9 235
81 8 30
82 6 4
83 2 12
84 8 517
85 0 6
86 3 7
87 4 134
88 8 15
89 2 163
90 5 3480
91 3 8
92 4 8
93 2 8
94 1 8
95 1 18
96 7 127
97 0 90
98 6 75
99 7 139
100 9 1500

Silly Frenchmen

First, the French complain that Google's library digitization project will be biased towards English literature and exclude or minimize French works. Now, Agence France Presse is whining that Google indexes its articles without permission. AFP sued Google, and of course, Google is removing all AFP content. Somebody call Chirac!

Where is GOOG headed now?

GOOG has tumbled a good bit from its high of $216.80, closing at $180.04 on Friday. I suspect we're going higher in the short term for a couple of reasons:

1. The lockout period has expired, insiders have dumped their shares. That pressure is now off the stock.
2. The competition from YHOO and MSFT has been overblown. Google will not be losing search or AdSense to them. AdSense revenues will once again explode when the 4th quarter 10K comes out and investors will respond kindly.

As to what happens in the longer term, I'll discuss that later.

Some vehement critics of Google

I've been perusing the FuckedGoogle site. These guys must be shorting big time.